The 1. FC Köln Files
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Predictions

1. FC Köln

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Next Match
Koeln vs Werder
Kickoff
Sat 12 Sept, 16:30
Oracle
45.4% / 25.6% / 29.0%
Akte Effzeh — Club-Dossier 1. FC Köln
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Koeln's win probability against Werder?
The Pinnacle Oracle calculates 45.4% win probability for Koeln (home).
Where does Koeln stand in the table?
Koeln are 11th with 3 points after 2 matchdays. Goal difference: -2.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does Koeln's probability come from — and what moves it?

Koeln vs Werder · Sat, 09/12, 04:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home44.2%
Draw24%
Away31.8%

Koeln: 44.2%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • ⚪ Koeln home 0.0pp
Home44.2%
Draw24%
Away31.8%

Koeln: 44.2% (0.0pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home45.4%
Draw25.6%
Away29%

Koeln: 45.4%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: -1.2pp — Pipeline model and Pinnacle nearly identical

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Source: Pinnacle via TheOddsAPI · Updated: Wed 9 Sept, 12:00

Koeln vs Werder Sat 12 Sept, 16:30
Koeln 45.4% 2.13
Draw 25.6% 3.78
Werder 29.0% 3.34
Spread Koeln -0.25 @ 1.87
Total O/U 3 @ 1.93 / 1.96
Margin: 3.34%
HSV vs Koeln Sat 19 Sept, 13:30
HSV 35.7% 2.67
Draw 26.9% 3.54
Koeln 37.4% 2.55
Spread Koeln 0 @ 1.88
Total O/U 3 @ 2.01 / 1.83
Margin: 4.92%

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for 1. FC Köln. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 2

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Augsburg 2 2 0 0 +6 6
2 Freiburg 2 2 0 0 +4 6
3 BVB 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Elversberg 2 2 0 0 +2 6
5 Mainz 2 1 1 0 +5 4
6 Bayern 2 1 1 0 +4 4
7 Leverkusen 2 1 0 1 +3 3
8 Leipzig 2 1 0 1 +1 3
9 Stuttgart 2 1 0 1 -1 3
10 Werder 2 1 0 1 -1 3
11 Koeln 2 1 0 1 -2 3
12 Paderborn 2 0 1 1 -1 1
13 Eintracht 2 0 1 1 -3 1
14 Schalke 04 2 0 1 1 -3 1
15 Union 2 0 1 1 -4 1
16 Hoffenheim 2 0 0 2 -2 0
17 Gladbach 2 0 0 2 -4 0
18 HSV 2 0 0 2 -7 0